Breaking down ways St. John’s can make NCAA Tournament

St. Johns has gone from dead and buried to very much alive in the span of just over a week.

It is back in the NCAA Tournament picture after impressive wins over No. 12 Creighton and Butler by a combined 37 points.

Most Bracketology projections currently have Rick Pitinos team as one of the first four teams out, meaning the Johnnies are close to reaching the tournament for the first time since 2019, but not quite there yet.

So much can happen between now and Selection Sunday on March 17.

The Post breaks it all down with a primer on the weeks to come as the bubble talk ramps up:

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You can bend yourself into a pretzel attempting to analyze how each game every night will impact St. Johns.

There are so many teams on the bubble with a variety of rsums to keep track of.

The simplest approach is following the teams that St. Johns has played.

5Daniss Jenkins goes up for a dunk after a whistle during the second half of St. John’s win over Creighton. Jason Szenes / New York PostHow they perform can directly impact the Johnnies.

Two teams in particular Villanova and Utah are important to keep an eye on.

Right now, St. Johns owns three Quadrant 1 wins, a key metric based on the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings that the selection committee uses as its primary metric.

That number, however, can easily increase to five. Only 13 teams in the country own more than five Quad 1 wins.

5Villanova has a NET of 32 and Utahs is 53.

St. Johns home win over Villanova becomes a Quad 1 if Villanovas number rises to 30 and its neutral site win over Utah also turns into a Quad 1 if the Utes rise to 50.

The Wildcats, on the bubble like the Red Storm, are incredibly important.

The one major issue with St. Johns resume is that it only has two wins over at-large tournament teams: Creighton and Providence.

5It’s wise for St. John’s to keep an eye on Villanova as their NCAA Tournament odds change. Getty ImagesThat number gets doubled if Villanova, which St. Johns swept in convincing fashion, is in the field.

The Big East rival closes the regular season at Providence, at Seton Hall and home against Creighton, giving it ample chances to boost its resume before the Big East Tournament.

Utahs schedule is easier, facing Pac-12 also-ran Cal on Saturday at home before trips to last-place Oregon State and fringe bubble team Oregon next week.

At this point, Villanova and Utah wins are wins for St. Johns.

5Butler’s Finley Bizjack passes the ball against Joel Soriano during the second half of St. John’s win. Getty ImagesOn the other hand, it is important that Butler doesnt fall out of the top 75 of the NET it is currently 68 because that would take away a Quad 1 win from St. Johns.

Another team to monitor is West Virginia. The road win over the Mountaineers becomes a Quad 2 if their NET increases from 144 to 135.

Quad 2 wins arent as important as Quad 1s, but everything counts when it comes down to the committee picking one team over another.

Take care of business

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Yes, its DePaul and Georgetown, the leagues two punching bags. Two games St. Johns can win with its D game. But winning isnt enough when it comes to metrics.

The Johnnies need to hammer these teams. Bludgeon them. Beat them into submission. St. Johns NET ranking of 40 is solid for a bubble team, but huge margins of victory tend to improve this metric, which takes into account offensive and defensive efficiency along with game results, strength of schedule, game location and the quality of wins and losses.

Villanova recently moved up four spots in the NET after crushing Georgetown by 30 points at home.

Since the selection committee began using the NET in 2019, only six teams have failed to reach the dance with a NET ranking in the 30s: N.C. State (33), Clemson (35) and Texas (38) in 2019; Texas A&M (36) and Oklahoma (39) in 2022; and North Texas (38) last year. Rutgers (40) missed out last March as well.

If the Johnnies can raise their NET ranking into the mid-30s, that would certainly help their cause.

Tournament time

The consensus among most Bracketologists is that St. Johns needs another significant victory over a tournament team.

That opportunity will come in the Big East Tournament. At the moment, the Johnnies are slotted seventh in the league, which would mean playing in the out-bracket round against Georgetown first then meeting fifth-ranked Marquette in the quarterfinals.

5Zuby Ejiofor (24) and Glenn Taylor Jr. (35) celebrate during a first-half timeout during St. John’s win over Butler. Robert Goddin-USA TODAY SportsBut it is unlikely to remain that way if they knock off DePaul and Georgetown as expected to close the regular season.

It is more likely that St. Johns finishes either fifth or sixth. It is only one game in the loss column out of fifth, behind Providence and Villanova.

A fifth-place finish would get them a bye to the quarterfinals and a meeting with on-the-bubble Seton Hall at the moment.

Sixth would mean taking on Creighton in the quarterfinals (as long as the Johnnies knock off last-place DePaul on the opening night of the tournament).

St. Johns owns the tiebreaker with Villanova and loses one with Providence. If all three teams finish tied, Pitinos team would have the edge.

Either way, the quarterfinals should offer the Red Storm a chance to add a key win to their rsum. It could determine if they go dancing or not.